5 cautiously optimistic predictions for AI and Tech 2026.
Year-end predictions are as much wishful thinking as analysis, but they are a fun thinking tool. Through my usual prism of level-headed optimism, I offer 5 predictions on how 2026 might unfold.
For anyone who follows the news as closely as I do, 2025 was the year that the cauldron of expectations started bubbling dangerously. In 2026, the mix of hype and fear will likely overflow, driven by a sharp market correction, a major scandal and a heated jobs debate.
Assuming neither element goes into overdrive, this can be healthy. With the hype taken down a few notches, AI adoption looks like a tough, but manageable, business problem. Despite the challenges, remember to ask: what can go right in 2026?
1. AI stocks will make a sharp V-turn
As the AI bubble is turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, a sudden correction looks likely. The drop will be V-shaped: sharp, sudden and short. There may be casualties as funding gets scarcer, but Big Tech is investing from a position of health and should recover quickly.
Things can still go horribly wrong. OpenAI and Anthropic might stage underwhelming IPOs, Nvidia’s habit of circular financing might create a downward spiral, and burnt retail investors might prolong the downturn. Topping off the froth will also be a blessing in disguise, providing some much-needed clarity and allowing AI professionals to work without the screaming headlines.
2. A major scandal will shift focus to safety
To a seasoned security professional, AI looks like a car crash in slow motion, with a high-profile misinformation scandal a distinct possibility. The media has done a good job of reporting on hallucinations, manipulation and dependence. Still, the biggest attack surface is deepfaked news, as malicious actors exploit the new capabilities and sheer volume of slop.
As companies work out adoption, the focus will shift to AI safety. Guardrails alone will not be sufficient, and hybrid models will emerge to constrain generative features within deterministic straitjackets. The internet will splinter, with brands increasingly distancing themselves from slop for fear of reputational damage.
3. Agentic AI will turn the heat up on the jobs debate
Next year will see the first cohort of post-AI graduates entering the job market. In parallel, agentic AI will automate many junior tasks, suppressing supply and feeding accusations of societal and economic harm. High-profile layoffs, a bear market and a return of the graduate premium will harden anti-tech attitudes.
The debate will likely be weaponised for political gain. As the hysteria mounts, many companies will adopt a pro-jobs stance, advertising their hiring policies and mentoring programmes. Expect a heated debate on the balance between human and digital workforces.
4. Struggling with AEO, brands will lean into creativity
Marketers had a rough 2025. The SEO rulebook is out, but the new AEO one has not yet been written. Content is cheap, ineffective and drowning in slop. Across the funnel, marketers will need to find their creative edge, trying out new concepts and fresh growth tactics. Outbound will shape-shift to attract AI agents, but inbound will remain sluggish.
To distance themselves from slop, brands will lean into clever campaigns that combine old-fashioned wit with AI-powered personalisation. OpenAI will enter the advertising market, creating an AEO frenzy that will not settle for some time.
5. Europe will launch an AI offensive, of sorts
By now, the full extent of the Ukraine war, AI and MAGA contrarianism is clear. Next year, the French election will suck all the oxygen, so it is now or never for Europe. As the world’s richest market decides that AI is a strategic priority, things will happen. Funds will flow, incentives will be agreed, and contracts will be signed.
Other European AI champions will join Mistral, bolstered by substantial rearmament funds. The Draghi report will gain traction, as Europe realises that a strong market is the only way to remain relevant. Regulation will be bargained away: in a fractured world, Europeans can be rich, free or fair - but not all three at the same time.